I don’t know about you, but I’m not inclined to make many predictions about the outcome of the midterm elections this year. Too many contests are too close-fought.

There’s one prediction, though, that I think is safe: After the dust has cleared, Congress will be narrowly divided and President Biden will have to work hard to govern effectively. Whether he can do so will depend on plenty of different factors, but none will be more important than his relationship with members of both parties in Congress.

Lee Hamilton is a Senior Advisor for the Indiana University Center on Representative Government; a Distinguished Scholar at the IU Hamilton Lugar School of Global and International Studies; and a Professor of Practice at the IU O’Neill School of Public and Environmental Affairs. He was a member of the U.S. House of Representatives for 34 years.

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